Category: Mixed

  • From Marzipan Bars to Modern Product Strategy: What Conjoint Analysis Still Teaches Us

    From Marzipan Bars to Modern Product Strategy: What Conjoint Analysis Still Teaches Us


    From Marzipan Bars to Modern Product Strategy:
    What Conjoint Analysis Still Teaches Us


    Back in my university days, I spent weeks staring at survey data about chocolate bars. Not exactly what you’d expect from someone who would later live and breathe Microsoft Cloud and AI, but that project shaped how I think about product development to this day.

    Our mission: use conjoint analysis to understand why marzipan bars live in the shadow of other flavors and how to design a bar that people would actually pick. Today, in a world of digital products, AI features and app marketplaces, the lessons from that study are still surprisingly relevant.


    From marzipan bars to modern product strategy


    In our seminar, we worked on the very glamorous category of “Riegelware” – those snack bars you see at the checkout, also known as “quengelware” in Germany because kids spot them, beg for them, and parents eventually give in.

    The brief sounded simple:
    Why do marzipan bars underperform compared to other flavors, and how could we change that?

    To answer that, we didn’t just ask, “Do you like marzipan, yes or no?” We treated it like a full new product development process:

    • Identify customer needs and segments
    • Understand competitors and the overcrowded snack shelf
    • Build different product concepts (flavor, coating, size, price, add-ons, packaging)
    • Test those concepts using conjoint analysis before ever launching a new bar

    If you replace “chocolate bar” with “SaaS feature” or “AI add-on”, you get the same basic pattern that modern product teams and startups still follow today: generate ideas, refine concepts, test before launch, and reduce the chance of a flop.

    Back then, the numbers were brutal: in some FMCG categories, over 70% of new products failed. Concept tests and conjoint analysis were one way to reduce the odds of burning budget on things nobody really wanted. Today, with app stores and cloud services overflowing, the failure rate hasn’t magically disappeared—it just moved into the digital space.


    What conjoint analysis really does (in human language)


    Conjoint analysis sounds like something you’d only do with three cups of coffee and a statistics textbook next to you. In reality, it answers a very human question:

    “When people choose between products, what really matters—and how much?”

    Instead of asking “Do you like marzipan?”, we showed respondents different combinations of product attributes:

    • Price (for example: €0.49, €0.59, €0.69, €0.79)
    • Chocolate coating (milk, dark, no coating)
    • Flavor (plain chocolate, cream filling, caramel, nougat, marzipan, coconut, coffee, …)
    • Portioning (one bar, two pieces, multiple pieces)
    • Weight (small snack vs. bigger bar)
    • Add-ons (no add-on, biscuit, wafer, nuts, cereals, fruit)

    Participants chose which bar they would buy from these combinations. From those repeated choices, we used hierarchical Bayes estimation to compute part-worth utilities—essentially, how much each feature and value increases or decreases the likelihood of a choice.

    Today, product teams do something very similar, just with prettier dashboards:

    • A/B tests in apps instead of paper questionnaires
    • Feature flags instead of hypothetical flavors
    • Data science pipelines instead of SPSS + seminar room

    But the logic is the same: people make trade-offs, and instead of guessing, you measure those trade-offs.


    What people really wanted and why marzipan struggles


    When we crunched the numbers, some patterns were wonderfully intuitive—and some were a bit painful for marzipan fans.

    First, the obvious one: price matters.
    As expected, lower prices generated higher utilities. Between €0.59 and €0.69, many respondents were nearly indifferent; below that, the price became a real positive driver. That’s still true today: even in premium niches, price elasticity is very real, especially in crowded categories like snacks or app subscriptions.

    Flavor-wise, the data was crystal clear:

    • Classic chocolate flavor was the top favorite
    • Cream fillings performed very well, especially among women
    • Caramel and nougat were also strong
    • Marzipan, coconut, and coffee flavors scored significantly lower on average

    Marzipan wasn’t a total disaster—but it clearly played in the second league. That already hinted why marzipan bars sit in the corner while chocolate, caramel and nougat dominate the center shelf.

    For other attributes we saw similar patterns:

    • Milk chocolate coating beat dark chocolate and “no coating” comfortably
    • A bar split into two pieces felt just right—easy to share or save, but not over-fragmented
    • Bigger weights increased perceived value up to a point; beyond about 65–80g, the utility started to level off or drop
    • Add-ons like plain or biscuit were preferred over cereals and especially over fruit pieces, which scored poorly—if people reach for a chocolate bar, they apparently don’t want disguised health food

    Interestingly, when we split the data by gender, we didn’t get a completely different world—but we did see nuanced differences:

    • Women were more price-sensitive overall
    • Men cared more about size (very small bars scored worse with them)
    • Women rated cream fillings and cereal components higher
    • Men leaned more towards nuts and kept a stronger preference for milk chocolate

    These are exactly the kind of insights that still drive segmentation and positioning today: the product that works best for one segment might not be the winner for another.


    Why concept tests still matter in a world of AI and cloud


    You might ask: “Nice snack bar story, Uwe, but what does this have to do with my cloud transformation or AI roadmap?”

    A lot.

    The mechanics haven’t changed:

    • In consumer goods, we mix price, flavor, packaging, size
    • In software, we mix features, UX flows, pricing models, support levels
    • In cloud and AI, we mix service tiers, data residency, AI capabilities, compliance guarantees

    The risks haven’t changed either. Whether it’s a marzipan bar that nobody buys or a cloud product nobody activates, launching the wrong thing at scale is expensive. That’s why concept tests, conjoint analysis, and structured experiments are still gold—especially when you move fast with cloud-native services and AI features.

    The difference today: we don’t have to wait weeks for survey data and manual calculations. With Microsoft’s ecosystem and modern analytics, we can:

    • Run near real-time experiments across regions and segments
    • Feed telemetry into product decision loops
    • Use AI to detect patterns in usage and preference
    • Combine classic survey-based research with behavioral data from real users

    In other words: the snack-bar methodology grew up, moved to Azure, and learned to work with streaming data and AI. But the question it answers is still the same:

    “What combination of attributes gives this product the best chance of success—for whom?”


    The limits of conjoint analysis (and why humility is part of good product work)


    Even in our student project, we ran into the limitations that every serious study faces—and those are still very relevant for today’s product teams.

    First, respondent fatigue. Some participants told us quite openly that the survey felt too long and that they stopped paying attention to details like price toward the end. That’s the reality in many research setups: people get tired, take shortcuts, and the data becomes noisier.

    Second, the “number of levels” effect. Attributes with more levels often look more “important” in the analysis, simply because there are more utility steps between the best and worst option. That can distort perceived importance and tempt decision-makers to tweak the wrong lever first.

    Third, the assumption of compensatory decision-making. Conjoint models often assume that people mentally add and subtract utilities (“this flavor is worse, but the price is better, so overall I still pick it”). Real humans often don’t behave like that. They use heuristics:

    • “Never pay more than €x for a bar”
    • “Always pick milk chocolate”
    • “No fruit pieces in my chocolate, ever”

    Later research showed that only a portion of respondents truly follow additive, compensatory rules. Others use threshold-based or simplified decision strategies. That doesn’t make conjoint useless—but it means you should treat it as one strong lens, not the single source of truth.

    Translate that to today’s world and you get a clear message:

    No matter how shiny your models, telemetry dashboards, or AI assistants are—reality is always messier than the model.

    That’s why the best product teams combine:

    • Quantitative modeling (conjoint, telemetry, funnel data)
    • Qualitative insights (interviews, usability tests, field research)
    • Continuous validation after launch (usage metrics, churn, feedback)

    From marzipan bars to cloud products: what I still use from this study


    Looking back at this seminar from today’s perspective, when I work with enterprises on Microsoft Cloud, Azure, AI and modern application architectures, a few core principles have stayed with me:

    • Don’t fall in love with ideas, fall in love with evidence. Marzipan might be your personal favorite, but if the preference structure says “chocolate + cream + fair price”, that’s the direction your mainstream product should explore—unless you consciously target a niche.
    • Design for segments, not for averages. The “average” respondent in our study didn’t really exist. Men and women had different priorities; in real markets, age, income, context, and use cases add even more layers. In cloud and SaaS, that’s your enterprise vs. SMB, regulated vs. non-regulated, core vs. edge workloads.
    • Prototype on paper before you prototype in code (or in factories).
      A well-designed concept test can kill bad ideas before they cost real money. Today, that might be a combination of user story mapping, Figma prototypes, simulated pricing pages, or low-fidelity feature toggles. Same mindset, different tools.
    • Accept that no method is perfect—but disciplined imperfection beats guessing.
      Yes, conjoint has theoretical weaknesses. Yes, survey fatigue is real. But a structured, data-informed view of preferences is still dramatically better than the HIPPO (Highest Paid Person’s Opinion) method.

    In a weird way, that marzipan project was my first serious lesson in data-informed product leadership—long before cloud economics, FinOps, or AI-driven analytics came into my daily work.

    Stay clever. Stay customer-obsessed. Stay insight-driven.
    Your Mr. Microsoft,
    Uwe Zabel


    🚀 Curious how market research, data-driven product design, and modern cloud strategy come together? Follow my journey on Mr. Microsoft’s thoughts—where cloud, AI, and business strategy converge.
    Or ping me directly—because building the future works better as a team.

  • From Lab Bench to Launch Day: What Really Makes Research Spin-Offs Succeed?

    From Lab Bench to Launch Day: What Really Makes Research Spin-Offs Succeed?


    From Lab Bench to Launch Day: What Really Makes Research Spin-Offs Succeed?


    If you’ve ever watched a prototype jump from a university lab into the real world and thought “wow, that escalated quickly,” you’re in good company. Back in my student days at the Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel I dug deep into spin-off ventures from public research. Today, with a few more battle scars from enterprise IT and cloud programs, the topic feels even more relevant: how do we turn publicly funded knowledge into real companies, real jobs, and real impact?

    Short answer: it’s not luck. It’s a repeatable mix of people, capability, and ecosystem—tuned for speed. Let’s unpack the playbook.


    What Counts as a Research Spin-Off


    A spin-off from public research is a company founded to commercialize knowledge, IP, or prototypes that originated inside universities or public research institutes. Think: novel materials, biotech processes, AI algorithms, robotics, med-tech devices—often “deep tech” with a non-trivial path to market.

    Why it matters:

    • It’s the fastest tech-transfer lane from public investment to private value creation (jobs, exports, tax revenue).
    • Small high-tech firms historically show outsized growth versus incumbents when they hit product-market fit.
    • With the right scaffolding (funding, IP rules, cloud, partners), spin-offs become regional innovation flywheels.

    In plain terms: spin-offs are how curiosity becomes commerce.


    The Strategy Lens: Resources and Capabilities Beat Hype


    In my paper from 2009 I leaned on two classics:

    • Resource-Based View (RBV): sustainable advantage stems from assets that are valuable, rare, hard to imitate, and well organized.
    • Dynamic Capabilities: it’s not just what you have, it’s how fast you sense opportunities, seize them, and reconfigure your business as the market moves.

    For spin-offs, that translates to: hire great people, wrap them in an operating model that learns quickly, and build partnerships that compound your strengths. Hype helps you trend on launch day; capabilities keep you alive in year two.


    Four Drivers You Can Actually Control


    Lots of factors influence success (timing, regulation, luck). Focus on what’s in your hands.

    1) Human Capital: Teams Ship, Papers Don’t

    Spin-offs live or die on the founding team’s skills and chemistry. You need scientific depth and market depth—plus the grit to iterate through uncertainty. The winning pattern I continue to see:

    • A technical founder who can explain the “why now” in crisp business English.
    • A commercially minded co-founder who can price, package, and sell to the first ten customers.
    • An early operator who quietly fixes everything from supplier agreements to compliance checklists.

    Hiring tip: prioritize “learners with throughput.” In a spin-off, speed compounds.

    2) Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO): Decide Fast, Learn Faster

    EO is the cultural fuel—proactiveness, calculated risk-taking, and a bias for experimentation. The best teams frame hypotheses (about customers, pricing, channels), run short cycles, and make small bets that unlock bigger bets. It’s science, just pointed at business.

    3) Network Capability: Your Partners Are Part of Your Product

    University tech-transfer offices, clinical or industry validators, pilot customers, cloud vendors, and manufacturing partners—if you can coordinate that network, you shorten your path to revenue. Strong partners lend credibility when you don’t yet have logos of your own.

    Practical move: map your partner graph early. Know who gives access (to data, users, facilities), who gives trust (brands, regulators), and who gives scale (channels, cloud, factories).

    4) Embeddedness: Build Inside the Right Ecosystem

    Location still matters. Being embedded in a region with labs, funding, testbeds, and anchor customers reduces friction. Tap alumni networks, local industry clusters, and government programs; align your milestones to the grants and procurement cycles that actually exist.


    Funding, IP, and the “First-Customer” Problem


    Most research spin-offs don’t fail because the science is wrong. They fail in the transfer from prototype to product:

    • Funding: Bridge the “valley of death” with staged finance (grants → seed → strategic pilots).
    • IP: Structure licenses cleanly—clarity on fields of use, sublicensing, equity vs. royalty mix—so you can fundraise without legal fog.
    • First Customers: Replace theoretical markets with a concrete pilot that proves a real business outcome (savings, compliance, speed).

    Reality check: your first product is not the paper. It’s the smallest packaged solution a customer will pay for, plus services that make it work.


    Cloud as a Force Multiplier (Hello, Azure 👋)


    Compared to the environment I studied back then, spin-offs now have a superpower: hyperscale cloud.

    • Build faster: managed databases, AI models, DevOps pipelines. There is no need to reinvent the plumbing.
    • Prove compliance: identity, encryption, logging, and policy enforcement are table stakes you can adopt, not rebuild.
    • Scale with grace: from a lab pilot to a national rollout without rewriting your stack.

    If you’re in regulated industries or government-adjacent domains, sovereign cloud options (e.g., EU data boundaries, external key management, partner-operated national clouds) can remove blockers early. The result: you spend your euros on product, not undifferentiated infrastructure.


    A Simple Execution Blueprint


    Not a silver bullet, just a battle-tested sequence that works:

    1. Team up intentionally: complement the science with go-to-market muscle from day one.
    2. Package the first offer: turn the research into a narrowly defined, billable outcome.
    3. Land a reference pilot: choose a lighthouse customer who will speak publicly when you deliver.
    4. Instrument everything: metrics for usage, reliability, and unit economics; learn fast or pivot early.
    5. Lean on the cloud: ship secure, observable, automatable services without slowing R&D.
    6. Grow the network: partners for credibility, capacity, and channels—renew them as you scale.

    Bottom Line


    Great science starts the story. Great execution finishes it. When human capital, entrepreneurial culture, partner networks, and the right ecosystem click together—amplified by a secure cloud foundation—research spin-offs stop being fragile and start becoming flywheels. That’s good for founders, good for regions, and honestly, good for all of us who want to see ideas ship.

    Stay clever. Stay entrepreneurial. Stay connected.
    Your Mr. Microsoft,
    Uwe Zabel


    🚀 Curious how research spin-offs, Azure, and go-to-market execution intersect? Follow my journey on Mr. Microsoft’s thoughts—where cloud, AI, and business strategy converge.
    Or ping me directly—because building the future works better as a team.

  • Kommagetrennte CSV in Excel speichern

    Kommagetrennte CSV in Excel speichern


    Kommagetrennte CSV in Excel speichern

    So klappt’s auch mit der Schnittstelle 🧠


    Für viele Admins, Power-User oder Schnittstellenheld:innen des Alltags ist es eine wiederkehrende Aufgabe: Daten importieren, Daten exportieren – im Idealfall ohne Formatierungsdrama. Und ganz oft läuft es am Ende auf eine einfache, gute alte Kommagetrennte CSV-Datei hinaus.

    Aber halt – CSV ist nicht gleich CSV. Besonders dann, wenn das Trennzeichen nicht passt.
    Und genau hier beginnt das Abenteuer zwischen Komma und Semikolon. 🚀

    Click here for an English version of that article.

    (more…)

    Kommagetrennte CSV in Excel speichern

    So klappt’s auch mit der Schnittstelle 🧠


    Für viele Admins, Power-User oder Schnittstellenheld:innen des Alltags ist es eine wiederkehrende Aufgabe: Daten importieren, Daten exportieren – im Idealfall ohne Formatierungsdrama. Und ganz oft läuft es am Ende auf eine einfache, gute alte Kommagetrennte CSV-Datei hinaus.

    Aber halt – CSV ist nicht gleich CSV. Besonders dann, wenn das Trennzeichen nicht passt.
    Und genau hier beginnt das Abenteuer zwischen Komma und Semikolon. 🚀

    Click here for an English version of that article.

    (more…)
  • 🧩 Comma-Separated CSV in Excel

    🧩 Comma-Separated CSV in Excel


    🧩 Comma-Separated CSV in Excel

    The Hidden Trick Every Admin Should Know


    Ah, the humble Comma-Seperated CSV file. It’s not glamorous. It’s not flashy. But let’s be honest: it’s the Swiss army knife of data exchange. Whether you’re automating a process, mass-importing data into a system, or just trying to avoid the Excel-to-ERP blues. CSV is your loyal companion.

    But as every IT admin, data nerd, or power user knows, there’s a catch. A tiny, frustrating, sometimes soul-breaking catch:

    “Why is Excel messing up my perfectly crafted CSV file!?”

    (more…)

    🧩 Comma-Separated CSV in Excel

    The Hidden Trick Every Admin Should Know


    Ah, the humble Comma-Seperated CSV file. It’s not glamorous. It’s not flashy. But let’s be honest: it’s the Swiss army knife of data exchange. Whether you’re automating a process, mass-importing data into a system, or just trying to avoid the Excel-to-ERP blues. CSV is your loyal companion.

    But as every IT admin, data nerd, or power user knows, there’s a catch. A tiny, frustrating, sometimes soul-breaking catch:

    “Why is Excel messing up my perfectly crafted CSV file!?”

    (more…)
  • The Enchanting Tales of Beedle the Bard

    The Enchanting Tales of Beedle the Bard


    The Enchanting Tales of Beedle the Bard


    As an avid fan of the Harry Potter series, I’ve always appreciated the rich tapestry of stories J.K. Rowling has woven into her magical universe. Among these, “The Tales of Beedle the Bard” holds a special place, serving as both a delightful collection of fairy tales and a profound narrative device within the series. Today, let’s delve deeper into these enchanting stories and explore their significance in both the wizarding world and our own.

    (more…)

    The Enchanting Tales of Beedle the Bard


    As an avid fan of the Harry Potter series, I’ve always appreciated the rich tapestry of stories J.K. Rowling has woven into her magical universe. Among these, “The Tales of Beedle the Bard” holds a special place, serving as both a delightful collection of fairy tales and a profound narrative device within the series. Today, let’s delve deeper into these enchanting stories and explore their significance in both the wizarding world and our own.

    (more…)
  • Christian-Albrechts-Universität (CAU) zu Kiel

    Christian-Albrechts-Universität (CAU) zu Kiel


    Christian-Albrechts-Universität (CAU) zu Kiel

    A Beacon of Excellence in Business Administration 🎓🌟


    As a proud alumnus of the Christian-Albrechts-Universität (CAU) Kiel, I am thrilled to share some exciting updates and reflections on our esteemed Business Administration program. Recently, the Business Administration Institute at CAU Kiel garnered high praise in the latest issue of Manager Magazine (Issue 3/04, p.152), affirming its position among Germany’s elite universities. This recognition not only honors the hard work of our faculty and students but also reinforces the university’s commitment to excellence in business education.

    (more…)

    Christian-Albrechts-Universität (CAU) zu Kiel

    A Beacon of Excellence in Business Administration 🎓🌟


    As a proud alumnus of the Christian-Albrechts-Universität (CAU) Kiel, I am thrilled to share some exciting updates and reflections on our esteemed Business Administration program. Recently, the Business Administration Institute at CAU Kiel garnered high praise in the latest issue of Manager Magazine (Issue 3/04, p.152), affirming its position among Germany’s elite universities. This recognition not only honors the hard work of our faculty and students but also reinforces the university’s commitment to excellence in business education.

    (more…)